‘Drop, Cover and Hold On’ or ‘Triangle of Life’ Attributes of Information Sources Influencing Earthquake Protective Actions

A well-known fact is that an earthquake or earth shaking does not cause injuries and deaths. Rather, buildings and infrastructure systems collapsing on people do. Hence, reputable government organizations from countries prone to high earthquake risks are heavily invested in advising their populations on immediate lifesaving protective actions (PAs). One such action is the ‘Drop, Cover and Hold on’ strategy proven to have saved countless lives. Unfortunately, in recent years another action known as the ‘Triangle of Life’ has been trolled through internet sites and hearsay. It is believed that adopting such an unsubstantiated erroneous action is likely to put people at greater risk during an earthquake. Thus, there is a need to extend studies to understand factors that influence people’s decisions to take certain PAs over another for earthquakes. This research does that through an empirical study of 647 residents from Mianyang City in the Sichuan province of China. The results indicate that if a PA is easy to understand, mentioned often by multiple sources and easy to access, then people will adopt it. But a striking finding is that people are also likely to be influenced by wrong information, depending on who is providing such information and through which medium (e.g. social media). These findings suggest that the Chinese government needs to provide gate keepers who are dedicated, trained personnel who can monitor misinformation on various Internet sites and address them. In parallel they can provide regular, up to date public advisories on immediate PA through multiple legitimate government, private and non-profit sector sources and channels

Hypothesis test on a mixture forward-incubation-time epidemic model with application to COVID-19 outbreak

The distribution of the incubation period of the novel coronavirus disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19) has crucial clinical implications for understanding this disease and devising effective disease-control measures. Qin et al. (2020) designed a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study to collect the duration times between a specific observation time and the onset of COVID-19 symptoms for a number of individuals. They further proposed a mixture forward-incubation-time epidemic model, which is a mixture of an incubation-period distribution and a forward time distribution, to model the collected duration times and to estimate the incubation-period distribution of COVID-19. In this paper, we provide sufficient conditions for the identifiability of the unknown parameters in the mixture forward-incubation-time epidemic model when the incubation period follows a two-parameter distribution. Under the same setup, we propose a likelihood ratio test (LRT) for testing the null hypothesis that the mixture forward-incubation-time epidemic model is a homogeneous exponential distribution. The testing problem is non-regular because a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. We establish the limiting distribution of the LRT and identify an explicit representation for it. The limiting distribution of the LRT under a sequence of local alternatives is also obtained. Our simulation results indicate that the LRT has desirable type I errors and powers, and we analyze a COVID-19 outbreak dataset from China to illustrate the usefulness of the LRT.Comment: 34 pages, 2 figures, 2 table

Kernel Parameter Optimization for Kriging Based on Structural Risk Minimization Principle

An improved kernel parameter optimization method based on Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) principle is proposed to enhance the generalization ability of traditional Kriging surrogate model. This article first analyses the importance of the generalization ability as an assessment criteria of surrogate model from the perspective of statistics and proves the applicability to Kriging. Kernel parameter optimization method is used to improve the fitting precision of Kriging model. With the smoothness measure of the generalization ability and the anisotropy kernel function, the modified Kriging surrogate model and its analysis process are established. Several benchmarks are tested to verify the effectiveness of the modified method under two different sampling states: uniform distribution and nonuniform distribution. The results show that the proposed Kriging has better generalization ability and adaptability, especially for nonuniform distribution sampling

Inactivation of Fam20C in Cells Expressing Type I Collagen Causes Periodontal Disease in Mice

FAM20C is a kinase that phosphorylates secretory proteins. Previous studies have shown that FAM20C plays an essential role in the formation and mineralization of bone, dentin and enamel. The present study analyzed the loss-of-function effects of FAM20C on the health of mouse periodontal tissues.By crossbreeding 2.3 kb Col 1a1-Cre mice with Fam20Cfl/fl mice, we created 2.3 kb Col 1a1-Cre;Fam20Cfl/fl (cKO) mice, in which Fam20C was inactivated in the cells that express Type I collagen. We analyzed the periodontal tissues in the cKO mice using X-ray radiography, histology, scanning electron microscopy and immunohistochemistry approaches.The cKO mice underwent a remarkable loss of alveolar bone and cementum, along with inflammation of the periodontal ligament and formation of periodontal pockets. The osteocytes and lacuno-canalicular networks in the alveolar bone of the cKO mice showed dramatic abnormalities. The levels of bone sialoprotein, osteopontin, dentin matrix protein 1 and dentin sialoprotein were reduced in the Fam20C-deficient alveolar bone and/or cementum, while periostin and fibrillin-1 were decreased in the periodontal ligament of the cKO mice.Loss of Fam20C function leads to periodontal disease in mice. The reduced levels of bone sialoprotein, osteopontin, dentin matrix protein 1, dentin sialoprotein, periostin and fibrillin-1 may contribute to the periodontal defects in the Fam20C-deficient mice

Abrogation of epithelial BMP2 and BMP4 causes Amelogenesis Imperfecta by reducing MMP20 and KLK4 expression

Amelogenesis Imperfecta (AI) can be caused by the deficiencies of enamel matrix proteins, molecules responsible for the transportation and secretion of enamel matrix components, and proteases processing enamel matrix proteins. In the present study, we discovered the double deletion of bone morphogenetic protein 2 (Bmp2) and bone morphogenetic protein 4 (Bmp4) in the dental epithelium by K14-cre resulted in hypoplastic enamel and reduced density in X-ray radiography as well as shortened enamel rods under scanning electron microscopy. Such enamel phenotype was consistent with the diagnosis of hypoplastic amelogenesis imperfecta. Histological and molecular analyses revealed that the removal of matrix proteins in the mutant enamel was drastically delayed, which was coincided with the greatly reduced expression of matrix metalloproteinase 20 (MMP20) and kallikrein 4 (KLK4). Although the expression of multiple enamel matrix proteins was down-regulated in the mutant ameloblasts, the cleavage of ameloblastin was drastically impaired. Therefore, we attributed the AI primarily to the reduction of MMP20 and KLK4. Further investigation found that BMP/Smad4 signaling pathway was down-regulated in the K14-cre;Bmp2(f/f);Bmp4(f/f)ameloblasts, suggesting that the reduced MMP20 and KLK4 expression may be due to the attenuated epithelial BMP/Smad4 signaling

The tempo of Ediacaran evolution

The rise of complex macroscopic life occurred during the Ediacaran Period, an interval that witnessed large-scale disturbances to biogeochemical systems. The current Ediacaran chronostratigraphic framework is of insufficient resolution to provide robust global correlation schemes or test hypotheses for the role of biogeochemical cycling in the evolution of complex life. Here, we present new radio-isotopic dates from Ediacaran strata that directly constrain key fossil assemblages and large-magnitude carbon cycle perturbations. These new dates and integrated global correlations demonstrate that late Ediacaran strata of South China are time transgressive and that the 575- to 550-Ma interval is marked by two large negative carbon isotope excursions: the Shuram and a younger one that ended ca. 550 Ma ago. These data calibrate the tempo of Ediacaran evolution characterized by intervals of tens of millions of years of increasing ecosystem complexity, interrupted by biological turnovers that coincide with large perturbations to the carbon cycle